Is this market concentrated or fragmented, and when should liners be replaced?
描述统计(均值/中位数/CV/偏度/峰度)、市场集中度(CR/HHI/Gini)、线性回归与残差分析、威布尔拟合预测 B10 寿命、增长率基数效应修正。
| Parameter | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
mode | string | 分析模式。 |
values | array | describe / concentration 模式:数值数组(如各国进口额)。 |
pairs_json | string | residual 模式:JSON 字符串,形如 "[[整机进口额, 零件进口额], ...]",最少 3 组。例:"[[347.2,20.8],[268.5,136.8],[207.6,562.1]]" |
lives | array | weibull 模式:现场换衬板记录(寿命小时),至少 3 个,建议 ≥5。 |
items_json | string | growth 模式:JSON 字符串,形如 "[{\"name\":\"哈萨克\",\"base\":6.5,\"latest\":268.5}, ...]"。base = 基期值,latest = 最新值。 |
Run via: local plugin
Input:
{
"mode": "weibull",
"lives": [
3200,
4100,
3800,
5200,
4600,
6100,
5500,
7000
]
}
Output (first fields):
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
mode | weibull |
result.ok | true |
result.replacement_timing_note | ⚠️ B10 不是更换时点。按 Barlow & Proschan (1965) 年龄更换模型,最优更换时点 T* 取决于成本比 c_f/c_p:β=2、η=8000h 时,c_f |
result.n | 8 |
result.beta | 4.175 |
result.eta | 5424.8 |
result.beta_meaning | β>1 → 磨损型(正常,衬板应属此类) |
result.r_squared | 0.9813 |
result.fit_quality | 拟合良好(注:R² 在威布尔概率图上判别力弱,建议改用 Anderson-Darling) |
result.sample_adequacy | 勉强可用(建议补至 ≥10) |
result.mean_life | 4929.1 |
result.interpretation | [4 项] ["β=4.17 → 磨损型失效,符合衬板特征","B10 寿命 3164 h → 按此时点备货,可覆盖 90% 的更换需求","样本量 8 次:勉强可用(建议补至 ≥10)","⚠️ 前提:样本必须是【失效记录】而非【计划更换记录】。若绝大多数衬板是计划更换(失效数 r=0),β 在数学上不可辨识 —— 拟合出的是更换策略分布,不是寿命分布,此时本结果不可用于寿命预测"] |
result.assumptions | [2 项] |
assumptions | [3 项] |
warnings | [3 项] ["统计结论是描述性/推断性的,不能替代现场实测与商务判断","威布尔拟合需 ≥5 次同机型同腔型同矿石的更换记录才有参考价值","小基数国家的增长率是基数效应,不得作为市场判断依据"] |
POST a JSON-RPC 2.0 request to the public MCP endpoint — no installation, no API key:
curl -s https://mackorn.cn/ai/api/mcp.php \
-H 'Content-Type: application/json' \
-d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
"params":{"name":"mackorn_market_stats","arguments":{"mode":"weibull","lives":[3200,4100,3800,5200,4600,6100,5500,7000]}}}'
Endpoint: https://mackorn.cn/ai/api/mcp.php ·
Registry: cn.mackorn/mackorn-cone-crusher ·
npm: mackorn-cone-crusher
Particle-size and flow models are independently implemented from published literature (Whiten 1972; Bond 1952). Vendor parameters come from MACKORN NH/NS tables. Every output carries assumptions[] and warnings[]; unknown values are returned as null, never estimated. Literature parameters must be calibrated against on-site sieve data before use in a formal proposal.
A hydraulic cone crusher is a secondary/tertiary machine: feed above roughly 350 mm is refused.